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PoliticalStrategy Warfare

Candidate Selection Support

Give the ticket to the person who can actually win the seat.

Evidence-based candidate assessment for parties — winnability scoring, ground acceptability testing and risk screening across a slate of seats.

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Short answer

What is Candidate Selection Support?

Evidence-based candidate assessment for parties — winnability scoring, ground acceptability testing and risk screening across a slate of seats.

The Challenge

What usually goes wrong

Ticket distribution is the single highest-leverage decision a party makes, and it is frequently made on proximity to leadership rather than on evidence of winnability. One or two wrong tickets can cost a majority.

Our Approach

How we run it

  1. 01

    Seat winnability baseline

    Each seat is classified by competitiveness so that candidate requirements are matched to what the seat actually demands.

  2. 02

    Aspirant assessment

    Each aspirant is scored on recognition, acceptability, organisational strength, resource capacity and record.

  3. 03

    Ground acceptability testing

    Survey testing of named aspirants against the local electorate, including cross-community acceptability.

  4. 04

    Risk screening

    Public-record screening for issues that could become campaign liabilities, assessed before the ticket is announced rather than after.

  5. 05

    Slate optimisation

    Recommendations are reviewed across the full slate for social balance, regional coverage and rebellion risk.

Deliverables

  • Seat competitiveness classification
  • Aspirant scorecards
  • Ground acceptability survey results
  • Public-record risk screening notes
  • Slate-level recommendation with rebellion risk flags

Tools & Data Sources

  • Winnability scoring model
  • Constituency survey instruments
  • Public record screening

Engagement Timeline

What happens, and when

  1. Week 1–2

    Seat classification

  2. Week 2–4

    Aspirant assessment

  3. Week 4–6

    Acceptability testing

  4. Week 7

    Slate recommendation

    Handover and review

In Practice

Where this was deployed

State Party Slate Assessment

Ticket decisions were being driven by proximity to leadership. Rebellion risk was unmeasured, and the party had no objective basis to refuse a well-connected but unwinnable aspirant.

Read the full case study

FAQ

Questions we are asked

No. We provide evidence; ticket distribution is a party decision made by its leadership. Our role is to ensure that decision is informed.

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