Triangular Contest 2023Anonymised
Triangular Contest Strategy
Consolidated our vote rather than chasing the opponent’s — the only winning move in a three-way.
- +16.4%
- Vote Share Increase
- 27,351
- Margin
- 63%
- Opposition Vote Split
Predictive Modelling
Understand which scenarios win, and what has to be true for each.
Scenario models that translate turnout, swing and consolidation assumptions into margin outcomes — used internally for planning, never published.
Short answer
What is Predictive Modelling?
Scenario models that translate turnout, swing and consolidation assumptions into margin outcomes — used internally for planning, never published.
The Challenge
What usually goes wrong
Campaigns make enormous resource decisions on gut feeling about turnout and consolidation. Modelling does not remove uncertainty, but it makes the assumptions explicit and testable instead of implicit and unexamined.
Our Approach
How we run it
- 01
Baseline model construction
Historical results, current survey data and demographic structure are combined into a baseline expectation with stated confidence bounds.
- 02
Scenario definition
We model the campaign’s real strategic questions — a three-cornered contest, a turnout surge in specific segments, an alliance formalising late.
- 03
Sensitivity analysis
Each variable is tested for how much it moves the result, identifying the small number of factors that genuinely decide the seat.
- 04
Continuous re-basing
As tracking waves arrive, the model is updated so plans respond to movement rather than to the initial assumption.
Deliverables
- Baseline scenario model with confidence bounds
- Named scenario set with margin outcomes
- Sensitivity ranking of decisive variables
- Refreshed model per tracking wave
Tools & Data Sources
- Historical result time series
- Survey integration pipeline
- Monte Carlo scenario simulation
- Turnout elasticity modelling
Engagement Timeline
What happens, and when
Week 1–2
Baseline build
Week 3
Scenario workshop
Week 3
Sensitivity reporting
Per tracking wave
Rolling updates
Handover and review
In Practice
Where this was deployed
Triangular Contest Strategy
In a triangular contest, effort spent attacking one opponent frequently transfers votes to the other. The instinct to fight on both fronts is almost always fatal.
Read the full case studyFAQ
Questions we are asked
No. Modelling is an internal planning tool for our clients. We do not publish projections, forecasts or predicted outcomes anywhere, including our Election Calendar, which carries factual schedule information only.
Related
Services that pair with this
- Constituency DiagnosticA structured audit of the constituency — demography, past results, factional map, issue salience and booth-level performance — delivered as a decision document.Learn more
- Opinion Polling & SurveysBaseline, tracking and post-campaign surveys designed for Indian constituency realities — stratified sampling, trained enumerators and disclosed methodology.Learn more
- Voter SegmentationSegmentation of the electorate into actionable groups by persuadability, turnout propensity and issue priority — with a message and a channel for each.Learn more