Turnout Propensity
The modelled likelihood that a given voter will actually vote.
Short answer
What is Turnout Propensity?
Turnout propensity is a modelled estimate of how likely an individual or segment is to actually cast a vote, derived from historical booth turnout, demographic patterns and survey-stated intention adjusted for known over-reporting.
Definition
Turnout propensity is a modelled estimate of how likely an individual or segment is to actually cast a vote, derived from historical booth turnout, demographic patterns and survey-stated intention adjusted for known over-reporting.
Why It Matters
A persuaded voter who does not vote contributes nothing. Weighting a targeting model by turnout propensity, rather than by population, is one of the highest-return adjustments available to a campaign.
Example in Indian Elections
Two booths of identical size may have very different historical turnout. Allocating equal resources to both ignores that the higher-turnout booth delivers substantially more votes for the same effort.
Related Terms
- Vote ShareThe percentage of total valid votes polled that a candidate or party receives.
- SwingThe change in vote share between two elections, measuring movement of support.
- Stratified SamplingDividing a population into groups and sampling proportionately from each.
- Cross-TabulationBreaking survey results down by demographic or behavioural subgroups.
- Sampling Error / Margin of ErrorThe uncertainty inherent in estimating a population from a sample.
- Back-CheckRe-contacting a share of survey respondents to verify enumerator honesty.